Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $160,696$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,634.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 55.6)}}\) (asimptote \(155,634.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,012$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,497.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,497.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,478$ on 2020-06-03

Turkey

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $166,422$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,236.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(158,236.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,609$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(869 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,454.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,454.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,961$ on 2020-06-03

Kuwait

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,359$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,182.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,182.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $230$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(7 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(309.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,379$ on 2020-06-03

Israel

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,377$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,668.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,668.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $291$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(70 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(278.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,103$ on 2020-06-03

United Arab Emirates

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,359$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(756 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,694.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.4)}}\) (asimptote \(45,694.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $270$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(21.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{272.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(272.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,936$ on 2020-06-03

Saudi Arabia

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,182$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,426.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(113,426.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $579$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(40.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,069.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,069.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,444$ on 2020-06-03

Qatar

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,160$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(671 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,905.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 86.8)}}\) (asimptote \(94,905.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,573$ on 2020-06-03

Cyprus

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $958$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(264 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{914.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(914.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(7.62 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-06-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Taiwan* recovered 97%
Thailand recovered 96%
Japan recovered 89%
Turkey recovered 62%
Georgia recovered 60%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 31%
Saudi Arabia recovered 22%

Taiwan*

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $443$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(436.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-03

Active

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-03

Thailand

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,084$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,997.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 19.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,997.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(30.4 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.0}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 10.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-06-03

Japan

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,867$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,648.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,648.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $905$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(72.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{959.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(959.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,260$ on 2020-06-03

Georgia

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $800$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{777.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(777.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.43 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $147$ on 2020-06-03