Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $160,696$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,634.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 55.6)}}\) (asimptote \(155,634.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,012$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,497.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,497.5\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,478$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $166,422$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,236.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(158,236.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,609$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(869 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,454.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,454.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,961$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,359$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,182.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,182.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $230$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(7 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(309.6\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,379$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,377$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,668.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,668.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $291$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(70 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(278.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,103$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $36,359$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(756 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,694.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.4)}}\) (asimptote \(45,694.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $270$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(21.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{272.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(272.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,936$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,182$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,426.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(113,426.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $579$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(40.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,069.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,069.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,444$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,160$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(671 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,905.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 86.8)}}\) (asimptote \(94,905.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $45$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,573$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $958$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(264 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{914.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(914.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.62 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17.0\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $151$ on 2020-06-03
